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Tennis betting tips | How to predict the winner of a Tennis match

[Applause]

so if you're betting on tennis or you

have some

amazing bet fair trading strategy you're

looking to solve the same problem

and that is what are the odds going to

be either now or at some point

in the future to be able to do that you

need to be able to create

a tennis model that will produce and

tell you what those odds are

and that's exactly what we're going to

do in this video

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so if you're betting on tennis or your

betfair training on tennis there's

one question that should always be

forefront

in your mind and that is what

are the odds or what should be the odds

because if you're placing a value bet

what you're attempting

to do is you're basically saying these

are what the odds should be

this is what the odds currently are and

that gap in between

those two points is the amount of value

that you get and that will determine

your stake and how much you profit

in the long run and if you do that

then you will make profit over the long

run because you're betting at odds

that are better than the market is

currently forecasting so to answer that

question you need to know

how do you calculate those odds and how

do you um understand what those odds

should be versus what you can see

in the market now if you bet fair

trading

what will happen is you'll be basically

saying these are

this is the current score these are

where the odds are currently at

this is the score that i'm looking for

this is where the odds will be and you

will profit from the difference

between those two points and both of

them

require you to understand what the odds

will be or where they will

be at some point in the future and that

is where your profit is being derived

from

so fundamentally speaking what you have

to do is actually understand

how to create those odds based upon what

you can see in front of you

or historical data the score in the

match all of those factors

will determine exactly what those odds

are but how on earth

do you do that and more specifically how

do you do

that on tennis

well we're going to go through that in

this video and we're going to actually

look

at some statistics and we're going to

actually look

at some odds and we're going to

basically

join those two up and show you how you

can use some basic statistics to create

a set of ants

and we're going to compare that to the

statistics to be able to

forecast what other elements actually

should be

and that will give us the proof that we

require that we do know exactly what

we're going to talk about

and to do that we need to come up with

some sort of fundamental

understanding of exactly what we're

trying to aim for

so when we look for example at football

and i have done plenty videos on that i

shall put some links

below so that you can watch those videos

it's quite simple to understand exactly

what we're attempting to do we're

basically saying how many goals are

there going to be

and how they're going to be split up

between the two teams from that we can

start to work out

what the odds should be before the start

of the match and as the match is

actually underway

we can actually create a model for

football by using some very simple

statistics now the great thing is we can

also

do that on tennis

so what we're looking at here is some

data from the atp to

our site if you go on to the atp or wta

tour site what you will find

is that they actually have a whole list

of statistics uh

looking at the number of break points

break points converted

number of first serves that went in the

number of points one on that first serve

the number of returns made

you know there's all sorts of data

tennis is blessed with data and even as

the match is underway

you'll see those statistics echoed

throughout the match and they'll throw

in a few other things like average

service speed and so on

but you can look at all of the data that

we've got here and this tells you pretty

much all of the stuff that we critically

need to know the things that we need to

fully understand

and you know when we look at this data

there's one specific bit of data

that we're going to need that will allow

us to do all of the forecasting that we

require

to pick up and forecast a model going

forward whatever the score

and based upon how a player has played

in the long term

now it's important with statistics that

you know we're going to create a simple

model here

um but it's up to you how you how much

depth you want

to plug into that because you can see

there are loads of stats here

but we're only going to use one of those

to create a model that will also

forecast some of the other stats that

you see

on this particular slide but

when you actually put this into use

you're gonna have to think about you

know

what data do we use how do we shape that

data how do we take into account

stuff that's just happened stuff that

happened a month ago any injuries that

the player has and stuff like that

but fundamentally speaking without going

into that complexity we need to create a

model so let's get on

and do that so using the data

on the previous slide we can actually

plug that into a

model which i'm going to describe now

and basically

when we looked at that previous page it

was saying that

the player that we're looking at gets

their first serve in

62 of the time so 62 times out of 100

the player gets that first serve in i

don't know why i'm doing that but it

just feels

like i really should be doing something

like a tennis action

um now when that serve goes in

they actually win a point on serve 79 of

the time

so the first part of the calculation

that we do is we say 62

of the time 62 times out of 100 um 79

of those times they will get that serve

in so we can deduce

from that but if you combine those

statistics together

we can basically say 79 of 62 equals

just short of 50 percent so that's the

first bit of the calculation that we've

done there we're basically saying

when when a player gets up and serves

they will get a point

uh 50 of the time just by doing that

now of course if they don't get their

first serve in then they need to do a

second serve

and the atp stats that we were looking

at

basically indicated that of the um

second serves that they play

they win 57 of those points so you can

see

a player has a much lower chance of

basically winning a point on that second

serve

than the first serve but we can combine

those stats again by saying that 38

of the time they'll be doing a second

serve and 57

of the time they will win a point on

that so we combine those two together

and that ends up with a figure of 21.66

just below 22.

so if we combine those two statistics

together

we can actually see that the player will

win a point on serve

just under 70 percent of the time and

all that we're doing

to get that statistic is we're working

out how many times they have to do a

first

serve which automatically tells us how

many times they're going to do a second

serve

and then we're looking at the data on

how many points they win on that first

or second serve we're combining all of

that together

to get to our 71

now the interesting thing is if you

actually look at that first

uh slide with all the statistics that we

put up there

you can actually see that that is

exactly what

those statistics tell us we have

successfully derived using a bit of

maths

what the chance of winning a point on uh

serve is

and we've done that by combining some of

the other statistics that we've seen

there

the first percentage second percentage

chance of winning a point on first

chance of winning 0.9 second derives and

matches the data that we see

for actually winning a point on serve

now on each game you're going to have to

serve more than one point so all we've

done is we've worked out

the chance of winning one point on serve

however we can do

some statistics and actually uh derive

the chance of them winning that game on

service by a number of different

methods we can basically say what's the

chance that they win the game 40 love 40

15 40 30

uh an advantage game juice um we can do

all of those

statistics sort of relatively easily

and it's you know the easiest one to do

and explain

is how what the chances of a player

winning a game

to love so this particular player has a

0.706

uh chance of actually winning a point on

service

so when they get up and go to hit that

serve you know they've got a 70 percent

odd child nearly 71

chance of winning that particular point

so if they're going to win a game

uh 40 love they're going to have to go

15 love

30 love 40 love game they're going to

need four points

so if we just do 0.71 or roughly that

you can see the exact number over here

to the power of four we're basically

saying they've got four chances

of getting this and therefore they've

got a point seven percent chance point

seven one percent chance of

getting a point on this particular serve

and they're going to do that four times

to win the game

and that magically comes up with this

number that you can see here so it's

saying there's about

a 25 chance of winning a game to love

so uh you know the returner will not get

a point

the server will serve um and win all of

the points in that particular game

there's

roughly a one quarter or a 25 chance of

that happening

then you can do the same for 40 15 40 30

and so on as you can see we've done here

and then you just tally up and add all

of those together

and that gives you the chance of them

winning the game

so how accurate is this let's go back

and have a look at that atp

stats data and see

what chance did the player have of

winning a particular game

if we do that miracle of miracles you

can see that it absolutely

matches and that is because you know in

football i've described how all of the

markets are intertwined and how goals

dictate that in tennis the chance of

winning a point obviously can be

projected backwards

and forwards and determine all of that

as well

so when you look at that you realize

that in fact when you're looking at

the data that's telling you lots of

information

the only thing i would say is obviously

the chance of winning a point on service

is probably going to rise and fall over

the course of the match and also

when you look at individual players

younger players that are at the top of

their game

are going to be able to hold that more

consistently than perhaps an older

player

that is perhaps going to get a little

bit more tired over a longer game

and also you know there are a number of

other factors in there so we're creating

a simplistic model here

but it's one that is accurate that you

can use as a base

to do your own particular predictions on

once you've worked out the chance of

them winning a point of serve and the

chance of winning a point on a game

then it's possible to actually uh do

that over the course of an entire set so

if you worked out

an individual serve you can do a game

and if you can do a game you can do a

set

and if you can do a set you can do the

match and boom suddenly

you have the odds that are available for

that player to win that particular match

now the problem is if you're slightly

confused by some of the maths that we've

done already

even though i've tried to simplify it

doing those calculations to do the

entire match

basically involves looking at every

possible scenario that you could

ever possibly have within a tennis match

and then actually fitting that model

into it and then projecting it forward

for every single projection then adding

up all of those

so if you think about it there are

hundreds of points in a match there are

loads of scores of games

it's almost impossible to do but it's

not

because we actually have a solution for

you and that solution is called

tennis trader you can use the basic

stats that you've constructed within

your initial model

and tennis trader will do all of the

hard work for you and project it out

across the entire market and across

a number of different scenarios so let's

have a look at how you can use this

amazing tool

within bet angel to be able to complete

your model

so if you're going to roll these

calculations out across an entire match

it gets very very complicated because

you've got hundreds of points

you've got scores of games um and loads

of scenarios that could happen

tie breaks all sorts of other stuff so

it gets really really complicated from

this point onwards

to be able to put your

statistics into a model and actually

output some odds however if you're a

better android customer you don't need

to worry

because it's all available for you if

you go into batch end you're

professional

and you click on the tennis ball icon

you bring up tennis trader and tennis

trader

is an industrial grade modeling tool

for tennis so if you work on any stats

you can

put them into tennis trader and tennis

trader will

output the odds for you it will do all

of the hard work for you

if this was a separate product um to be

sold into bookmakers

it would sell for a lot of money you get

it completely for free within bet angel

but let me explain how we would use it

in this particular circumstance

i've pointed it at a tennis match we can

use if you want to play around with it

just use a tennis match that's at some

point in the future

we don't need to worry about the

specifics of that tennis match at this

particular moment in time

what you will need to to do is select

what type of match it is i'm doing a

three set match

with a tie breaker allowed in the final

set and what i'm going to do

is next to the calibrate button there is

a calibration setting so if i click on

that

it brings up the calibration setting and

here you can actually enter the

percentage chance that a player wins

on serve so if we have two players

and one of them is priced we've got this

set at 62 and 66

if i apply that to the model it will

actually come up

and actually price what the market will

be

and we can adjust this to sort of

indicate if it was a much closer and we

think they're

much more equally matched you can see

that it will price that

as well or perhaps you've got one player

that is much stronger

than the other and you can see that it

puts the odds

in there as well and of course you can

do it the other way around if you want

to figure out

what the market is telling you and you

see a set of odds

you can actually as long as you make

sure you set the match type correctly

you can actually go in and get an

understanding of exactly

how strong it thinks the market thinks

one player is against another and then

you can take a value position against

that

or a trading position now the thing that

you'll be interested in as well

is if you actually look on the game

matrix here

you can actually put in the two values

because obviously you need one player

against another that almost requires a

separate video to discuss the

differential between two players

but you would put in the value against

both of these players and then it will

actually be able to project out exactly

how that is going to play out over the

course of a game and over the course

of a set so tennis trader does all of

this for you you fiddle around with the

core

values within the model and then tennis

trader will actually pump out the odds

for you you don't need to do any of the

complicated calculations that go behind

that you don't need to

stress yourself out with the maths of it

tennis trader will do it all

for you and if you go into the match

grid then you can actually

define custom scores so you can begin to

look at particular areas within the

match that may interest you

and then you can sort of say well if

he's a two games to one up

and is a set up uh what will the odds be

and stuff like that and then you can

start to sort of fiddle around

with the data here and see how that is

likely to influence things

um and what will happen within the match

and uh how that influences

the likely outcome and this is really

beneficial from a trading perspective

because as the match progresses you can

then begin to understand

uh what the market's telling you whether

it's discounting information

into the service game of each or both

players

but also from a value perspective by

adjusting these values here

you can actually come up with the odds

that you should expect to see for the

entire match so if you're having a bet

before

the match is underway you can use the

tennis trader model

to actually predict and understand what

the predicted adults will be

based upon any of the statistics that

you're using or that you have collated

so yeah if you want to understand how to

create a tennis model that is roughly

how you would do it

there is a lot more detail you can go

into if you wish but if you want to play

around with that

and you want to see the impact that your

statistics will have on the outcome of

match

then you have the perfect tool in bet

angel called tennis trader that will

allow you to do exactly that

without any of the hard work that you'd

have to do if you had to create your own

model

so anyhow i hope that that video has

been used for you and explained

how we have been able to successfully

create and understand

how to create a betting model for tennis

markets

you